Strategy

The Art of the Long View: 8 key ideas

by Peter Schwartz

The core ideas of The Art of the Long View, each in under a minute, written in our own words. Want the full depth? Get the book.

1. IDEA 1 OF 8

   Scenarios help prepare for uncertainty

   Schwartz, a futurist who worked in Royal Dutch Shell's planning group, explains scenario planning.

   Instead of predicting one future, he argues, organisations should imagine several plausible futures and prepare for each.

2. IDEA 2 OF 8

   Shell anticipated an oil shock

   Schwartz describes how Shell's scenario planners helped the company prepare for the oil crisis of the 1970s.

   In his account, planners had imagined a world where supply could be disrupted, so managers were less surprised when it happened.

3. IDEA 3 OF 8

   Identify driving forces

   Schwartz explains how to identify the driving forces, such as technology and politics, that shape the future.

   In his account, such forces set the broad direction of events, so understanding them gives scenario builders a base to work from instead of loose guesses.

4. IDEA 4 OF 8

   Some things are predetermined

   Schwartz describes predetermined elements, trends already under way, such as ageing populations.

   In his account, some future facts can be seen coming because their causes are already in place. Separating them from open questions saves effort.

5. IDEA 5 OF 8

   Some things are uncertain

   Schwartz describes critical uncertainties, factors that could go very differently.

   In his account, these are the unknowns that matter most to the future of an organisation, and different answers to them lead to different stories.

6. IDEA 6 OF 8

   Scenarios need plots

   Schwartz describes common plots for scenarios, such as winners and losers or cycles.

   In his account, such plots give a scenario a clear shape and help people remember it, because stories are easier to follow than lists of data.

7. IDEA 7 OF 8

   Seek unusual sources

   Schwartz recommends talking to remarkable people with unusual views to gather ideas.

   In his account, people on the edges of a field often notice changes before insiders do, so their views can reveal early signs of change.

8. IDEA 8 OF 8

   Rehearse the future

   Schwartz argues that scenarios let organisations rehearse responses before events happen.

   In his account, having already thought through several futures lets a team recognise early signals and respond calmly and quickly, instead of being caught off guard.