Peter Schwartz

The Art of the Long View

1. IDEA 1

   Scenarios help prepare for uncertainty

   Schwartz, a futurist who worked in Royal Dutch Shell's planning group, explains scenario planning. Instead of predicting one future, he argues, organisations should imagine several plausible futures and prepare for each.

2. IDEA 2

   Shell anticipated an oil shock

   Schwartz describes how Shell's scenario planners helped the company prepare for the oil crisis of the 1970s. In his account, planners had imagined a world where supply could be disrupted, so managers were less surprised when it happened.

3. IDEA 3

   Identify driving forces

   Schwartz explains how to identify the driving forces, such as technology and politics, that shape the future. In his account, such forces set the broad direction of events, so understanding them gives scenario builders a base to work from instead of loose guesses.

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