Psychology

The Art of Thinking Clearly: 6 key ideas

by Rolf Dobelli

The core ideas of The Art of Thinking Clearly, each in under a minute, written in our own words. Want the full depth? Get the book.

1. IDEA 1 OF 6

   Survivorship bias

   We see successful people and overestimate our chances.

   The many who failed are invisible. Look for the full picture.

2. IDEA 2 OF 6

   Confirmation bias

   We look for information that supports our beliefs.

   Actively seek out evidence that would prove you wrong.

3. IDEA 3 OF 6

   Social proof

   We assume what others do is right.

   Crowds can be wrong, especially in markets and fashions.

4. IDEA 4 OF 6

   Sunk cost fallacy

   Past investment shouldn't influence future decisions.

   Evaluate options on future value.

5. IDEA 5 OF 6

   Availability bias

   We judge likelihood by what comes easily to mind, such as dramatic news.

   Check base rates.

6. IDEA 6 OF 6

   Overconfidence

   We overrate our knowledge and predictions.

   Add margins and test assumptions.