Authors and thinkers
Author

Dan Gardner

6 key ideas, each explained in our own words.

Superforecasting

  1. IDEA 1

    Forecasting is a skill

    In tournaments, a group of ordinary people consistently beat experts at predicting world events. Their habits can be learned.

  2. IDEA 2

    Break problems down

    Split big questions into smaller, answerable parts and estimate each.

  3. IDEA 3

    Start with base rates

    Begin with how often similar events happen, then adjust for the specifics of this case.

All 6 ideas from Superforecasting →

Debates featuring Dan Gardner

Can the future be predicted?Forecasting is a skill vs The big events can't beShould the state be able to access citizens' data for security?Security needs data vs Privacy is a right

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