Noise: 6 key ideas
The core ideas of Noise, each in under a minute, written in our own words. Want the full depth? Get the book.
- IDEA 1 OF 6
Bias and noise are different
Bias is judgements consistently off in one direction.
Noise is unwanted scatter: different experts, or the same expert on different days, giving different answers to the same case.
- IDEA 2 OF 6
Noise is everywhere
Insurance quotes, sentencing and hiring decisions vary wildly between people looking at identical files.
Organisations rarely measure it, so they rarely see it.
- IDEA 3 OF 6
Run a noise audit
Give several people the same cases independently and compare answers.
The spread shows how much of your decision-making is a lottery.
- IDEA 4 OF 6
Decision hygiene
Like handwashing, you don't need to know which error you're preventing.
Structure, independence and aggregation reduce noise in general.
- IDEA 5 OF 6
Break judgements into parts
Score the components of a decision separately before forming an overall view.
Delay intuition until the facts are in.
- IDEA 6 OF 6
Average independent views
Combining judgements from people who formed them separately cancels out much of the random error.
Get one idea like this every daySwipe through ideas, go deeper on any of them, and save the ones that matter. Free.
Read Noise in the app