Toby Ord

The Precipice

1. IDEA 1

   Humanity stands at a precipice

   Ord argues that humanity has entered a dangerous period he calls the Precipice. Our technologies have given us the power to destroy ourselves, but our wisdom has not yet caught up, so the coming decades are especially risky.

2. IDEA 2

   Existential risks threaten everything

   Ord focuses on existential risks, events that could cause human extinction or permanently ruin humanity's future. Such risks threaten not just people alive today but all who might ever live.

3. IDEA 3

   Natural risks are relatively small

   Ord estimates that natural risks, such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanoes, are relatively unlikely in any given century. Human history shows we have survived them for a long time. Our survival record is long.

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