Gerd Gigerenzer

Risk Savvy

1. IDEA 1

   Risk versus uncertainty

   Risk is when probabilities are known, like a lottery. Uncertainty is when they aren't. Statistics help with risk; simple rules often work better under uncertainty.

2. IDEA 2

   Use natural frequencies

   Say "1 in 100" instead of percentages. Frequencies make risks easier to understand.

3. IDEA 3

   Defensive decisions

   People often choose options that protect themselves from blame rather than the best ones. Notice it in yourself and your organisation.

All 6 ideas from Risk Savvy →

Gut Feelings

1. IDEA 1

   Intuition is intelligence

   Gut feelings are based on simple rules of thumb that evolved for real environments. They can be fast and accurate.

2. IDEA 2

   Less can be more

   Ignoring some information can improve decisions under uncertainty by avoiding overfitting.

3. IDEA 3

   Recognition heuristic

   When choosing between options, picking the one you recognise often works.

All 6 ideas from Gut Feelings →

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