Annie Duke
12 key ideas across 2 books, each explained in our own words.
Thinking in Bets
- IDEA 1
Decisions are bets
Every decision is a bet on an uncertain future. Thinking this way makes you weigh probabilities instead of assuming certainty.
- IDEA 2
Avoid resulting
Judging decisions only by outcomes confuses luck with skill. A good decision can lose and a bad one can win.
- IDEA 3
Say how sure you are
Express beliefs as probabilities, like 70 percent. It invites updates and reduces defensiveness.
Quit
- IDEA 1
Quitting is a skill
Sticking with a losing path wastes time and money. Quitting at the right moment frees resources for better opportunities.
- IDEA 2
Beware sunk costs
Past investment shouldn't drive future decisions. Ask whether you'd start this today knowing what you know.
- IDEA 3
Set kill criteria
Decide in advance what signals will make you stop. It counters the tendency to rationalise.
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